Bitcoin detractors are preparing to write the currency’s obituary, but on-chain data and other factors suggest that the present price range could be a good place to invest.
With the commencement of a crypto bear market, the “Bitcoin is dead” movement has sprung out, joyously proclaiming the demise of the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Although the past few months have been difficult for investors, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to a new 2022 low of $17,600, the latest predictions for the asset’s destruction are likely to follow in the footsteps of the 452 prophecies that preceded them.
Bitcoin enthusiasts have a slew of methods and on-chain indicators for determining when BTC is in a buy zone, and now is the time to investigate them further. So let’s look at what time-tested metrics have to say about Bitcoin’s current price behavior and whether the 2021 bull market was BTC’s final hurrah.
Some traders always purchase the 200-week moving average’s bounces
The 200-week moving average (MA) is one indicator that has traditionally served as a strong level of support for Bitcoin, as illustrated in the chart below from market analyst Rekt Capital.
The lows in prior bear markets have occurred near the 200-MA, which has effectively served as a major support level, as indicated in the area highlighted by green circles.
BTC price has a habit of briefly wicking below this gauge before gradually working its way back above the 200-MA to begin a new uptrend.
After briefly dropping below the measure during the sell-off on June 14, BTC is currently trading right near its 200-week MA. While a move lower is possible, history suggests that the price will not stay below this level for long.
The price supports that have been in place for several years should continue
Along with the 200-week MA, there are a few important price levels from Bitcoin‘s past that should now serve as support if the price continues to fall.
The last time Bitcoin fell below $24,000 was in December 2020, when $21,900 served as a support level from which Bitcoin bounced before soaring to $41,000.
If support at $20,000 fails to hold, the following support levels, as seen in the chart above, are near $19,900 and $16,500.
It’s time to start stockpiling, according to MVRV
The market-value-to-realized-value ratio (MVRV), currently at 0.969, is another statistic that implies BTC is reaching an ideal accumulating phase.
As indicated in the graph above, the MVRV score for Bitcoin has remained over 1 for most of the last four years, except for two brief periods under unfavorable market conditions.
The MVRV score touched a low of 0.85 in March 2020 and stayed below 1 for about seven days, whereas the bear market from 2018 to 2019 saw the metric record a low of 0.6992 and spend a total of 133 days below 1.
While the data does not rule out the possibility of more price declines for Bitcoin, it also implies that the worst of the selloff has already occurred and that the present severe lows are unlikely to remain in the long run.